Miner Economics

Q1 2026 saw a turning point: spot‑Bitcoin ETF inflows reversed with $296M in weekly outflows, fee competition ramped up via a proposed 0.14% Morgan Stanley ETF, and on‑chain sellers—sovereigns and stressed miners—added supply pressure. Institutional allocators must now weigh cheaper access against persistent sell-side flows and macro rate expectations.

A synthesis of ETF flow data, exchange treasury behavior, miner economics and macro signals to assess whether BTC is close to a cycle bottom and what allocators should do over the next 3–12 months.

A predicted difficulty increase on December 11 will reshuffle miner economics, forcing older rigs out and changing short‑term selling dynamics. This explainer walks through the drivers, immediate margin impacts, institutional behavior, and the on‑chain and macro indicators to watch next.