
A synthesis of ETF flow data, exchange treasury behavior, miner economics and macro signals to assess whether BTC is close to a cycle bottom and what allocators should do over the next 3–12 months.

A practical, trader-focused framework to reconcile bullish commentary (Saylor, Santiment) with on-chain and technical warning signs (six‑month lows, death cross, rising exchange supply). Includes a checklist, exact BTC/ETH levels to watch, and a 4-step scaling‑in plan for managers with a long bias.