
Ripple’s full Luxembourg EMI license changes the regulatory runway for EU payments and on‑ramps; but recurring XRP escrow unlocks complicate the near‑term token picture. This analysis separates legal capability from market mechanics and models three plausible XRP price/volume scenarios if the EU rollout accelerates.

Renewed institutional interest in XRP — signaled by 10.8M XRP ETF inflows over two days and a scheduled ~$1B Ripple escrow unlock — changes the supply equation. This article breaks down who holds ETF tokens, the interaction between escrow releases and ETF demand, historical price reactions, and practical positioning for short‑term volatility and longer‑term adoption into 2026.