U.S. December CPI matched expectations at 2.7%, keeping inflation pressures contained. Bitcoin climbed above $92,000 as markets priced in a higher chance of Fed rate cuts.
Bitcoin climbed after December’s U.S. jobs report showed weaker-than-expected payrolls growth and a softer unemployment reading, boosting bets that the Fed will pause rate hikes. Markets are treating the news as supportive for risk assets but remain watchful for further macro signals.
U.S. federal debt reached $38.5 trillion on Jan. 3, 2026, a milestone that coincided with Bitcoin's annual Genesis Day celebration marking the first block mined by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009. Crypto communities used the date to highlight contrasts between fiat debt growth and Bitcoin's fixed supply.
FOMC minutes show policymakers expect rate cuts only in 2026, triggering renewed selling pressure across Bitcoin and altcoins. Markets enter the New Year with higher-for-longer rates weighing on crypto liquidity and risk appetite.
Fidelity’s macro chief Jurrien Timmer warned that both Bitcoin and gold may experience a “down year” or underperformance in 2026. The outlook could pressure flows into crypto and precious-metal strategies as investors reassess hedges.
The S&P 500 climbed to a record 6,900 on Tuesday while the total crypto market cap remains below $3 trillion, underscoring a widening performance gap between equities and digital assets.
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, forecast that 2026 will be a down year for Bitcoin. The call from a major asset manager could influence institutional sentiment and market positioning.
Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone warned on Dec. 15 that the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index's 2025 pattern mirrors the 1929 Dow, dubbing the setup 'Peak Bitcoin?'. He argued the market is entering an early-stage purge akin to the Great Depression rather than a mere pause.
On Dec. 10, 2025 the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.0%–3.5% target range, a move widely priced into CME futures and prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. The decision reinforces a more accommodative stance that could matter for crypto and risk assets.
Standard Chartered strategist Geoff Kendrick trimmed his year-end Bitcoin target to $100,000 and pushed his $500,000 projection back to 2030, calling current conditions a "cold breeze" rather than a full "crypto winter."