MSCI Crypto Rules Could Force $15B of Selling, Analysts Warn
MSCI's proposed rule changes for its indexes could prompt large-scale selling of crypto treasury holdings, analysts say. One estimate put immediate outflows at as much as $11.6 billion if affected companies are excluded from MSCI products; some market participants caution that passive rebalancing and secondary reactions could push total forced selling toward about $15 billion. The mechanics are straightforward: index-tracking funds typically must divest excluded names within rebalancing windows, creating concentrated supply shocks for assets held by treasury-focused crypto companies.
Such a wave of selling would matter for liquidity and price discovery in already thin markets, potentially widening spreads and pressuring token prices that corporate treasuries hold as reserves. The timing and scale remain uncertain — MSCI has not set a final removal schedule — so investors should watch rebalancing dates, fund disclosures and corporate treasury moves for early signs of forced liquidations and broader contagion risk.