Data Suggests Bitcoin's Four‑Year Cycle Has Broken
New data analyzed through the latest cycle indicates Bitcoin's average annual returns have gradually eroded, and crucially there were no pronounced peak returns in the most recent four‑year period. That pattern departs from the familiar post‑halving spikes that historically defined Bitcoin’s four‑year cadence, lending empirical weight to the hypothesis that Bitcoin’s risk/return structure has materially changed.
The finding matters because many investors and models still rely on the four‑year framework for timing, position sizing, and return expectations. If Bitcoin is evolving into a more muted, mature asset class—where macro factors, ETF flows and adoption dynamics outweigh discrete halving shocks—portfolio construction and risk management will need to adapt. Market participants should reassess assumptions about peak returns and consider diversification, longer holding horizons, and scenario planning for lower cycle amplitudes.